YAL Academy
Macro and the calendar
Growth, inflation, rates and the institutions that set them, then the calendar as a schedule of volatility rather than a schedule of opportunity. Deliberately not US centric, with the CBUAE, SAMA, oil and the regional pegs alongside the Fed and the ECB.
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The arc
IntermediateModule 8 of 10
15 lessons, about 133 min
- AssumesReading the chart
- UnlocksRisk, plan and practice
The lessons
What this module covers
Establishes the transmission chain first, from inflation to rates to currencies, so every institution and release that follows has somewhere to attach. Then the institutions in order of global influence, with the regional central banks given equal standing. Then the calendar mechanics, expectations, revisions and event volatility framed as risk. Closes on the two regional structures no competitor covers and on the two portfolio level effects, sentiment and correlation.
Lesson 01
What macro means for a trader
The chain from an economic condition to a policy decision to a price, stated once so the rest of the module can refer to it.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 7 min
Lesson 02
What inflation is and why it moves markets
A general rise in prices, how it is measured, and why a central bank treats it as its central problem.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 8 min
Lesson 03
What interest rates do to a currency
The link between a policy rate, market determined rates and the price of a currency, including the several places where the link breaks.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 9 min
Lesson 04
What a central bank actually does
Mandates, tools and the difference between what a central bank targets and what it controls.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 9 min
Lesson 05
Hawkish and dovish language
How a statement is read as a change in stance, and why the words move markets more than the decision.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 7 min
Lesson 06
The Federal Reserve
Structure, mandate, meeting cadence and the documents that accompany a decision.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 13 min
Lesson 07
The ECB, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China
Three institutions with different mandates, different tools and different levels of transparency.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 9 min
Lesson 08
The CBUAE and SAMA
The two Gulf central banks that matter most to a regional reader, and what a pegged regime does to their choices.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 9 min
Lesson 09
How to read the economic calendar
What each column means, what an impact rating claims, and how to use the calendar as a schedule of risk.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 14 min
Lesson 10
Expectations against actual
Why a strong number can weaken a currency, and what 'priced in' actually describes.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 7 min
Lesson 11
Revisions and why the first print is not the truth
Data that changes after publication, and the trades that were sized on a number that no longer exists.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 7 min
Lesson 12
Volatility around events is a risk topic first
Wider spreads, gapped fills and margin changes around a scheduled release, before any discussion of opportunity.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 8 min
Lesson 13
Oil as a regional macro driver
Why the oil price sits underneath Gulf fiscal conditions, and what that connects to for a regional reader.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 9 min
Lesson 14
What a currency peg does
The dirham and the riyal against the dollar, how a peg is maintained, and what it does to a currency pair.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 8 min
Lesson 15
What market sentiment and positioning describe
Where the crowd is already committed, how that is measured, and why a measurement is not a signal.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Read time
- 9 min
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