Trading glossary
Quarterly earnings
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Quarterly earnings are a listed company's three monthly report of revenue, profit and guidance, released on a scheduled date that is routinely the most volatile session in that share's quarter.
The periodic report a listed company makes on a fiscal quarter: revenue, margins, earnings per share, segment detail, cash flow, and in most cases management's guidance for the periods ahead. It is filed with the market's regulator and released to every participant at the same moment, conventionally outside continuous trading hours so that the market has a pause in which to read it. Quarterly reporting is a requirement in some jurisdictions and only half yearly in others, so an earnings calendar is a market convention rather than a global rule.
What moves the share is the surprise, not the level. Analyst estimates are collected into a published consensus in advance, and the price already reflects that consensus, so the reprice comes from the gap between what was reported and what was expected, together with whatever the guidance says about the quarters that have not happened yet. Guidance frequently dominates the reported quarter outright, which is the mechanism behind a share falling on a record profit. Options markets price the event separately: implied volatility in the contracts covering the reporting date is typically elevated beforehand and falls sharply once the numbers are public, whichever way the share went.
The practical trip is the release window. Because the report lands while continuous trading is closed, the next price a holder sees is often a gap rather than a path: the first traded price afterwards can sit some distance from the last one before, and an order resting between the two levels becomes executable at the next available price rather than at the level named on it. A contract for difference over the share adds nothing to that and removes nothing from it, since the company is not the counterparty to the contract and no shareholder rights attach, though a dividend adjustment still applies when the underlying goes ex-dividend. Whether quarterly reporting itself encourages short term management of a business is a long running argument in corporate governance, and it is unresolved.
How it is calculated
An earnings surprise is the reported figure less the consensus estimate, conventionally expressed as a percentage of that estimate.
A hypothetical quarter against consensus
- Consensus estimate for the quarter
- 1.20 per share
- Reported figure
- 1.32 per share
- Surprise
- 1.32 − 1.20 = 0.12, or 10% above consensus
- Guidance issued alongside it
- Below the prevailing consensus for the next quarter
- One outcome consistent with those two facts
- The share falls, despite the reported figure beating
Illustrative figures describing no company, no quarter and no period. A figure above consensus does not determine the direction of a price, which responds to guidance and to what was already priced as well as to the quarter reported, and the final row is one possible outcome rather than the expected one.
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